Tuesday, April 20, 2004

WWW and WWB ?

It is interesting to see how the evolution of the blogosphere has paralleled the evolution of the WWW.

* Tim Berners-Lee and others (Dave Winer and others) develop hypertext link tools like HTML (RSS)
* People start creating web pages (blogs) frenetically in an initial growth spurt.
* Bookmark lists (blogrolls) become all the rage as people try to find more and more web pages (blogs)
* Meta-organizing entities (Yahoo/Kinja) start emerging, as a way to organize and classify the web (blogosphere)
* Google (Technorati) starts using link structure to determine "interesting" pages (blogs)
* Major organizations start creating web pages (RSS feeds) in response to user demand.

Based on this, one can expect the following to happen in the future:

* blogrolls, and the wonderful diversity of blogs, will start shrinking, at least in terms of hits (subscriptions). Prominent blogs will start drawing more and more of the traffic away from smaller ones.

* Audio/video content delivery mechanisms (the enclosure field in RSS is already an example of this) will start gaining importance (napblog anyone?)

* Media outlets will figure out a way to get advertising into blogs, in a more prominent way than currently exists. One example is to force you to clickthru an ad to read a full entry from a blog or a news feed.

What else ?
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